Cignal AI
Welcome to TRANSMIT, Cignal AI’s monthly newsletter keeping you up-to-date on important news and trends in the optical industry, our latest research, and noteworthy upcoming events.
4th Generation Coherent Poised to Disrupt Market
Since the beginning of the firm, Cignal AI has been at the forefront of defining and forecasting the evolution of coherent technology. In a recent research note, we quantified component and equipment vendor investment in 4th generation coherent. This latest generation – the arrival of standardized, pluggable 400ZR and derivative technologies – has the potential to be the most disruptive event in optical hardware since the advent of coherent 100G nearly a decade ago

Initially considered a solution to connect metro data centers for cloud operators, the 400ZR is evolving into a much larger opportunity that is backed by more than $300 million of investments by component and equipment manufacturers. The reason: 4th generation coherent supports operators' desire for complete interoperability, pluggability and standardized specifications.
Read this report and learn more about:
  • Background on 400ZR catalysts and development
  • Vendor-by-vendor investment in 400ZR 
  • Expanding the market for 400ZR – ZR Plus and 100ZR
  • What the future holds
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December 13 – Join Us for a Live Presentation and Q&A on the 3Q18 Optical Hardware Report
Join us on Thursday, December 13, at 11 a.m. EST for a live presentation of the 3Q18 Optical Hardware Report released at the end of November. Andrew Schmitt and Scott Wilkinson will provide a summary of 3Q18 results, offer analysis of regional and segment revenue trends and vendor results, and provide insights into segment and regional forecasts.

This webinar presentation launches a new benefit for Optical Hardware clients, who will be invited to participate in quarterly live presentations. These presentations will provide additional perspective and detail on the reports, and participants have the opportunity to ask questions of analysts Andrew Schmitt and Scott Wilkinson in real time.
Please note that this event is open only to active clients of Cignal AI's Optical Hardware Report. Can't attend on December 13th? We'll post a recording of the presentation on the Cignal AI website, as well as the PowerPoint to download. Register and you'll be notified when it is available.
Register Now
Ciena Faces Challenge for
Compact Modular Market Leadership
The newly minted combination of Infinera and Coriant could significantly challenge Ciena dominance in market share for compact modular equipment used in DCI and open disaggregated hardware applications, according to our latest Optical Applications Report. Released last week, the report details 3Q18 results, including significant growth in coherent 200G shipments as 200G takes share away from 100G more quickly than originally forecast.

The Optical Applications Report details market share and provides forecasts in three key markets: compact modular equipment, advanced packet-OTN switching hardware, and 100G+ coherent WDM port shipments across multiple speeds.
Other key findings included:
  • 400ZR is on track for introduction in 2019 as R&D momentum builds among component and equipment makers. 
  • Compact modular is expected to be a higher percentage of the North American market as sales rise again from strong purchasing by cloud operators.
  • The Packet-OTN market grew 30% worldwide, led by incumbent builds in Asia and Europe.
Read Press Release
January Client Visits in Japan
Optical hardware sales in Japan grew dramatically over the last year as non-Japanese manufacturers made significant inroads in the country and network operator spending re-ignited. Cignal AI’s Andrew Schmitt and Scott Wilkinson will be traveling to Japan January 21-25 to meet with vendors and operators to examine how the market is evolving. 

Contact us if you’d like to set up a meeting with Andrew and Scott in Japan.
Interesting News
U.S. Senators Ask White House to Probe ZTE Work in Venezuela
Senators say ZTE may have violated export agreement terms with shipments of Dell equipment to Venezuela. This is political action and poor reporting. The U.S. has no technology sanctions against Venezuela - only financial ones.
BT to Strip Huawei Equipment from its Core 4G Network 
Acquired Everything Everywhere 4G network uses Huawei for the Evolved Packet Core. BT will replace Huawei over the next two years. 5G network will not use Huawei, except for radios.

100 Gigabit Ethernet in Cable Access 
Good take on the various options for introducing 100G technology as part of driving fiber deeper into cable networks.

The End of the Beginning – Andreessen Horowitz 
Excellent presentation by ex-analyst Ben Evans on the global e-commerce opportunity. In short, the numbers for making things are in the billions of dollars, while the numbers for selling things are in the trillions.
Upcoming Events
January 21-25, 2019
Client Visits

January 28-30, 2019
Cisco Live (Europe)

March 4-7, 2019
San Diego, Calif.

Contact us to set up a meeting.
Optical Hardware
Analyzes market share and size for entire optical equipment market according to hardware-based features and capabilities. Includes 10/40/100G+ client and line port shipment numbers.

Optical Applications
Examines market share and size for portions of optical market addressing specific functions or customer applications, including compact modular and Packet-OTN switching equipment. Details market size and share for the 100G+ coherent and non-coherent market across multiple technologies and reaches.

Optical Customer Markets
Tracks the size of optical equipment market by six end customer types, including incumbents, cloud and colo, and wholesale. Includes vendor market share of the cloud and colo customer segment.

All Cignal AI clients also receive access to Active Insight reporting and analysis on notable events in the optical network market.

Contact us if you are interested in becoming a client
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