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A Dual Refrain

Dear <<First Name>>,

I have always laughed at the dual nature of the word "refrain." Usually it means to stop doing something, but a "refrain" in music means to repeat something over and over again. This week our Sun is guilty of doing both. First it has refrained from giving us any big flares or flare players, which means solar flux has hit its lowest levels in weeks. But secondly, it is also undergoing a musical refrain in that it has launched not one wispy, Earth-directed solar storm, but two.

The first of these solar storms, I discuss in my latest forecast (see below). But no sooner than I finished the forecast than our Sun lunched another Earth-directed solar storm!  Early predictions of this second storm, launched June 30, indicate it could arrive as early as July 4th. Just like the first storm, this one also slow and wispy so the impact is expected to be light. However, just like a musical refrain, back-to-back storms reinforce the message.

As for the rest of the forecast, the absence of big-flare players has caused the solar flux to drop back into the mid-90s. So along with the solar storms coming, this could mean some disruptions in radio propagation over this holiday weekend. GPS users should enjoy decent reception, yet remain vigilant near dawn and dusk and near aurora once the storms hit. Especially since two wispy storms are coming, we should all be ready for a dual refrain.


P.S. I will likely do a live informal forecast on You Tube this weekend (July 2nd or 3rd) to give an update on the events as they unfold.
The Sun Fires a Direct Hit | Solar Storm Forecast 06.30.2022
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