A Picture-Perfect Growth Spurt
Dear <<First Name>>,
We have entered a transitional period for the Sun, which is sure to be confusing for most. We have come out of the Cycle 24 minimum and indeed have crossed the "terminator," which signals the trigger for explosive growth in activity. But just like an infant, our young Cycle 25 has growth spurts. What this means is that the Sun will suddenly exhibit bursts of activity from massive new regions that emerge. These regions might even launch spectacular solar storms that will be newsworthy, but as soon as it begins, the spurt will be over.
A perfect example is what we have witnessed over the past few weeks with regions 2936 and 2938. This twin pair of regions first made the news in early February when they launched a series of impressive looking but weak solar storms, which incidentally resulted in the loss of 40 Starlink satellites. That was the beginning of the growth spurt. These regions continued growing on the Sun's farside, eventually launching a picture-perfect solar storm captured by Solar Orbiter (I include it in the forecast). But soon after it started, the spurt was over and these regions quieted down. So don't believe the continued hype in the media. As shown in the image above, their magnetic complexity has mellowed. They aren't even a risk for big flares anymore.
Looking towards the forecast this week, we only have weak pockets of fast solar wind that are bringing a bit of aurora to upper-mid-latitudes. All else is calm. So while the news continues fretting over the recent activity and what is in store, we know better. We can rest easy.
Cheers,
Tamitha
P.S. For those of you who are interested in how Starlink "fell out of the sky" so-to-speak, I did a deep dive on the subject that you can find here: https://youtu.be/uY3TMaExHkg?t=1832
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A Major Player Returns | Space Weather News 02.21.2022
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