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| 10 things that will be big next year in the IoT |
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| By Stacey Higginbotham |
Hopefully you're reading this newsletter on your last day at the office or while curled up at home with a warm and festive beverage. Instead of taxing your brain with some deeply technical explainer, I figured I'd share some big trends that I'll be writing about in the coming year along with some of the big trends that I've written about in the last few years that are finally reaching fruition.
So grab that cocoa or tea and let's predict the future. |
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| — The U.S. will launch a cybersecurity label in 2023, but odds are it won't look like this one. That's because the government isn't eager to focus on privacy. Image courtesy of CMU. |
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1. Matter rolls out and then fades into the background: In the first half of the year we're going to get a bunch of new Matter products from vendors as well as a few updates to existing products. For those who want to experience the Matter smart home interoperability protocol in all its glory, I suggest buying new gear that comes with Matter already operational, because updating your existing gear will be a bit painful. For buyers of Matter gear who start with Matter and stay there, the road to smart home devices will be so easy that Matter will essentially fade into the background, paving the way for companies in 2024 to launch services on top of the gear making its way into more homes. Anyone like me (and likely most of our readers) should instead wait a bit to update and expect the process of upgrading existing gear to be a pain. Also, be sure to warn loved ones not to buy cheaper, non-Matter gear that will flood third-party markets.
2. RF sensing makes it big: Several services built around Wi-Fi signal disruptions to track motion or falls in the home have launched recently. As have devices for tracking sleep or presence that use radar sensing in place of the traditional passive infrared (PIR) sensors. In 2023, more products will replace PIR with radar and more companies will enable Wi-Fi sensing in their products. For example, at CES a company called Aloe Care will use Origin Systems' Wi-Fi sensing technology to monitor homes for movement, including falls. Also, as you'll read about in the news section, NIST has approved an algorithm that uses Wi-Fi signals to monitor breathing. Adding software to track movements in homes using Wi-Fi and radar will lead to more contextual awareness of what's happening in the home without needing to add a bunch of new devices.
3. Greater context means greater creepiness: In line with the previous two trends, our homes will experience a huge leap in intelligence. With engineers at smart home companies less focused on making sure their products perform basic functions across different ecosystems thanks to Matter, they are free to build more interesting intelligence into their platforms, such as lights that reliably turn on when you enter a room, or security systems that help eliminate false positives. Matter-enabled sensors will share more contextual information, as will new RF sensors that can better detect where a person is within a room and even what they are doing. But as manufacturing companies take advantage of this information, some systems are going to go too far. The first moment a Google hub suggests that a person standing in their kitchen at 2 a.m. staring into their fridge should try a relaxing sleep meditation, or a smart lighting system dims the lights in the middle of a dinner party at 9:30 p.m. because that's the normal time the user goes to bed, people will be both irate and creeped out by how much their home knows about them. In the coming year, overreaching smart home systems are going to cross this creepy line and show consumers how much information the devices in their homes and the companies that make those devices know about them.
4. The fight for privacy begins in earnest: After more spouses get caught cheating and Alexa's hunches get increasingly personal, awareness of the number of sensors in our homes — and how little governance there is about the data that gets shared — will prompt a backlash. The result will be that more consumers start to reject smart devices. Others will choose to pay up for devices that protect their privacy by not sharing their data with third-party marketing firms and by explaining how data gets transferred and stored. I don't think there will be legal action in the U.S., but I do think the clamor for it will only get louder.
5. Hardware security improves: It may not feel like it, but we've come a long way since 2016 when the Mirai botnet kicked off a wave of concern and regulations around how safe our connected devices really are. Thanks to legislation, executive orders, and various industry efforts, newer devices are built more securely. Moreover, as Matter rolls out with security as a core feature and more federal regulations dictate how passwords are managed while demanding "reasonable security measures," next year's hardware and devices will be more secure. Now we just have to get companies and consumers to implement it.
6. Security regulations harmonize: There are dozens of competing regulations governing cybersecurity internationally, and almost as many in the U.S. in the form of state laws, regulatory orders, and executive orders. Next year, as part of the continued attempts to secure connected devices, there will be a harmonization of rules in the U.S. at the federal level and within the EU, which will start enforcing its Cyber Resilience Act.
7. Over-the-air wireless power hits the market: After years of waiting for wireless power to actually transmit power over the air (as opposed to wirelessly charging something by sticking it on a Qi transmitter) the technology finally gained approval in several countries in 2022. This means we'll see devices that support over-the-air wireless power transmission in the home and in industrial and retail settings. We're already seeing retail trials, and I expect to see a few wirelessly powered smart home devices at CES in two weeks.
8. 5G factory rollouts become real: The touting of 5G years before it was ready caused a lot of frustration for companies seeking to evaluate it for their own factory deployments. Thanks to updates made in June of this year to the 5G standard that offer location tracking and better battery management, products designed for factory 5G will become readily available in 2023 through both pilots and scaled-out production. Finally!
9. IoT helps with the energy transition: In 2021 and 2022 I wrote about the big trends that were driving utilities, regulators, and consumer electronics companies to focus on building an internet of electricity. In 2023, those behind-the-scenes efforts will become visible with several products designed to make use of a smarter grid or to bypass the grid entirely and simply use electricity more intelligently within the confines of the home. There will also be a fight among traditional electricity providers, upstarts, and consumer electronics companies to become the brains of this smart home electrical network.
10. M&A will abound: Given the economic uncertainty, there will be a lot of restructurings and deals as smaller companies in the IoT get swallowed by bigger ones. They'll likely include traditional OT firms bulking up on some available industrial IoT software providers and perhaps IT companies buying into specific industrial verticals. The energy transition and a focus on smart home services will drive deals as well. |
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| Devices and services for securing your smart home |
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A few weeks back, I explained how I think about my risk model when it comes to cybersecurity in my smart home. Shortly after that piece was published, Comcast issued a report that showed how wrong many people were when it came to understanding which devices posed the largest threat to their home network security.
In my article, I recommended using an outside device or service to monitor your network, so I figured I'd share my experience with some of the options out there. |
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| — My array of smart home security devices include a Firewalla Purple, an Everything Set box, and sometimes a monthly subscription to the Eero Secure service. Image courtesy of S. Higginbotham. |
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I use a service or device to both monitor which devices are on my Wi-Fi network and assess traffic patterns. Many companies, such as Comcast and Eero, offer a security service on top of their internet service or router for a monthly fee. These security services let you track the devices on the network and will usually alert you to weird traffic patterns, such as when a connected dishwasher suddenly tries to send 100 times the usual data it uploads each night.
There are also physical devices that plug into your router that will monitor and alert you to traffic issues. I use a $399 device called the Firewalla Purple, which provides an incredible amount of customization and monitoring capabilities. The Firewalla doesn't just look at traffic patterns, but at where traffic is heading and what type of traffic is traveling on the network. It also provides basic firewall and intrusion detection.
It's powerful but can be somewhat intimidating, too. For example, I get a lot of notifications, including ones about ports that have been left open on a specific device or data that is hitting questionable services. The average human isn't going to know what those messages mean, and might panic. Even I get overwhelmed by notifications. But if you're willing to look up the alerts, you'll learn some pretty awesome stuff and feel more capable of managing your network. You can also turn off notifications or limit the types of alerts you see. (Here's a seven-and-a-half-minute video on managing alarms!)
Or you can install a device from a startup called Everything Set. I've run the device, which is currently in beta, on my network for about six weeks. Instead of freaking me out about abnormal uploads or notifying me when my kid's MacBook is watching video, I just get a weekly report with a security score and some charts highlighting any devices that have shown higher-than-average use.
The first week, my security score was a 10 (even though I had open ports!), but it has since dropped to a 9.0. That is still apparently pretty good, but I don't exactly know what has caused my score to drop. I did add a Eufy lock and an IKEA Dirigera hub during this time frame, so perhaps that's it. The CEO of Everything Set told me that the company is working on sharing more information and an updated version of the software should launch early next year (this is a beta product).
I've also used Eero's cheaper security plan, which is no longer available. If you want to get security through your Eero router, you now have to pay $9.99 a month for security as well as access to Last Pass, a VPN service and parental controls, and an ad blocker. Without paying a cent, I do still get access to notifications when a new device joins my network and I can dig in on a specific device to see how much data it's using.
Google Nest WiFi Pro gives you proactive network speed monitoring and optimization, guest networking, parental controls, automatic software updates, and adult content site blocking, for free. You can turn on Google’s SafeSearch to block adult sites, but you can’t block specific sites or even categories. It's helpful, but not really robust enough to be a security service.
For Comcast's 32 million broadband subscribers, if they pay for an Xfinity Gateway, they also get xFi Advanced Security, which helps monitor network traffic going into and out of the home, proactively flagging "odd" or malicious behavior. Comcast has been adding functionality to its modems for more than half a decade as the number of devices in the home has skyrocketed and the complexity of managing a home network has become more difficult.
Asad Haque, executive director with Comcast, said that the Gateway’s "advanced security capabilities are very helpful. Just like [a] deadbolt on a door provides security to what is behind that door, Gateway's ability to guard [the] network protects what is behind that gateway." He added that the next layer of security will be built into the connected devices in the home, touting the work that the Matter home interoperability protocol has done on this front.
"It is often too much for consumers to understand 'DMZ' architecture where untrusted/guest devices are segmented off, but that is a good practice as well," he said. I am going to recommend you avoid doing that unless you have a really high risk profile. It's very complicated and can break certain device capabilities when a user's phone is on one network and the device is on the other.
And what about antivirus software? While it can protect users' computers and phones both in and outside of the home, for those worried about their many connected devices that aren't computers, even antivirus provider Bitdefender recommends some form of router-based service or standalone device. Bitdefender also provides its software to Netgear, which offers its own Arbor-based security service tied to Netgear routers.
Shalini Sengupta, senior product line manager for Netgear Armor, said physical devices may not protect any devices outside of your home network (which is why antivirus software that does is useful on computers that leave the home network). As for buying a physical device or relying on your ISP or router maker, Sengupta thinks devices that come with a router or from the ISP are a bit more consumer friendly because security software on a home router automatically activates as you set up your router. And many of these services let you try the service in one-month increments so you can find out whether or not it actually helps.
The bottom line is if you want to set up a smart home, it's probably worth considering your risk profile, as I wrote about two weeks ago. And if you don't like the risk you're taking, investigate an outside device or service. I think they are worth the cost in terms of peace of mind. Plus they usually offer many other functionalities, such as parental controls or ad blocking, that make them worth the added cost. |
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| Episode 403: Matter upgrades aren't ready for prime time |
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| We tried Matter for the first time late last week, and have a lot to share with our listeners about what we and other journalists learned through the process. The early verdict is that most people should not update for a while because the process is tedious at best and downright frustrating at worst. But if you want to update, we provide tips. Then we focus on a story about iRobot's Roomba vacuums that shows how a larger ecosystem of tech partners are taking device data and potentially sharing it in places consumers wouldn't be comfortable with. Next up, we cover the acquisition of Notion by Pepper IoT, which wants to help insurers build policies around the smart home. We also cover some news bits such as an Amazon employee becoming the new chairman of Z-Wave Alliance, delays for the next generation of Raspberry Pi hardware, and further updates on the Eufy camera security snafus. |
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| — The Homey hub will launch in the U.S. at CES. Image courtesy of Homey. |
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| Our guest this week is Stefan Witkamp, the commercial director at Athom, the company behind the Homey smart home hub. Witkamp explains Homey's privacy-focused smart home hub and the plan to launch the latest generation of the Homey Pro hub at CES. This will be the first time Homey is available in the U.S. after six and half years of availability for the original Homey hub in Europe. Homey Pro has all of the radios that a smart home needs, including Thread and IR. For listeners who care about privacy, Witkamp explains how Athom created a business model that allows the company to respect user privacy. This means the $399 pro version of the hub is more expensive than other options on the market, and the cheaper version comes with a monthly subscription. We talk about what it costs to keep a home hub running and how investors can push a company to choose alternative business models. Enjoy the show. |
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This week on the IoT Podcast Hotline, we answer a listener question about how far apart Thread devices should be in the home.
The IoT Podcast Hotline is brought to you by Silicon Labs. Silicon Labs is a leader in secure, intelligent wireless technology for a more connected world. Learn more about their integrated hardware, software and development tools at silabs.com. |
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| Programming note for next week |
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Kevin and I are taking next week off from the newsletter and podcast, for a little rest and relaxation ahead of CES. We'll be back on January 5 with the podcast and January 6th with a newsletter featuring all the CES news you could want.
I appreciate y'all and hope you have a happy and healthy New Year! |
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| News of the Week |
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Rockwell Automation signs a partnership to work on industrial IoT in Saudi Arabia: Rockwell Automation has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Internet of Things Technologies Company, a joint venture between Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and stc Group. The MOU has Rockwell consulting on new business opportunities and innovations within the industrial sector. The idea is that by working together the country and Rockwell will be able to speed the adoption of new technologies for Saudi factories as part of digital transformation initiatives in the Kingdom. The news doesn't say much, but it's worth noting that the Internet of Things Technology Company exists and aims to push industrial IoT in Saudi Arabia. (Arab News) — Stacey Higginbotham
NIST develops a breath sensing algorithm that uses Wi-Fi: Researchers at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST, have built an algorithm that uses disruptions in Wi-Fi fields to detect breathing issues. The BreatheSmart algorithm correctly identified the simulated breathing conditions 99.54% of the time. It works by tracking the channel state information provided to the router more frequently to understand how a person is breathing. I've talked to companies using radar for measuring breath, but Wi-Fi would be even better since it's already in use in homes and everyday devices. Of course, with this level of granularity people are going to start realizing that companies deploying this tech will have a lot more personal health information than they might want to provide. It would be awesome in health care or elder care settings, though. (Engadget) — Stacey Higginbotham
Origin Wireless inks a deal with Aloe Care for Wi-Fi sensing: Wi-Fi sensing technology made by Origin Wireless will be used to track seniors' movements and falls in various health care settings thanks to a deal signed with Aloe Care. Aloe Care makes a voice-activated in-home care alert system. With Origin's software, Aloe Care will launch new in-home safety devices and a service offering that will automatically detect whole-home motion and falls without the user needing a wearable device or indoor cameras. I can't wait to see this at CES and get a sense of how accurate it is. (Origin Wireless) — Stacey Higginbotham
Philips Hue brings natural light to its bulbs: If you have Philips Hue bulbs, you may want to check the corresponding mobile app. It’s likely you’ll find a new “natural light” option available, something Philips Hue started but then stopped rolling out earlier this year. The feature is similar to Apple’s Adaptive Lighting functionality, which modifies bulb colors based on the time of day. Early in the morning, your white Philips Hue bulbs will provide a cool white light, gradually adjusting to warmer colors later in the day. (9to5 Mac) — Kevin C. Tofel
Hoobs goes Pro for Matter: Remember Hoobs, the pre-built $299 smart home hub with Homebridge software installed? When I reviewed it, I thought it was a good product that brought basic smart home device support for Amazon Alexa, Apple HomeKit, and Google Home devices. But I noted it that was far more expensive than just buying a Raspberry Pi and installing the open source Homebridge app. Well, now there’s a Hoobs Pro model that you can pre-order for $399. Why the price jump? Hoobs Pro supports Matter devices with its embedded Thread radio. The cost is still steep to me but I already have a few Matter controllers. For a new smart home owner that wants a hub to do it all, Hoobs Pro is worth a look. (Hoobs) — Kevin C. Tofel
MQTT 101 is now in session: We mention the MQTT messaging standard on a regular basis, mainly because it’s one of the de facto IoT messaging protocols. Well, more so for industrial IoT than consumer use cases, but it’s still important. Since we rarely get into exactly how MQTT works, this explainer is worth sharing as it offers more context around device messaging. (InfoWorld) — Kevin C. Tofel
What can you learn from a CT scan of the Nest Thermostat? Arguably, the Nest Thermostat helped kick off the current smart home era. Designed by Tony Fadell of Apple iPod fame, it’s very functional while also being a beautiful piece of hardware. How did Fadell design the smarts inside the original Nest? A CT scan of the device provides all of the answers. I found this writeup and accompanying video quite fascinating. And I learned about the custom leaf spring connectors and other clever engineering approaches used in the product. (Scan of the Month) — Kevin C. Tofel
Pepper acquires Notion in smart home insurance play: IoT platform provider Pepper has acquired Notion from Comcast. The deal gives Pepper an entre into the smart home insurance market by giving it access to Notion's multi-purpose sensors and insurance clients. (Stacey on IoT) — Stacey Higginbotham
Amazon rolls out limited version of Matter: Amazon has enabled Matter on millions of Echo devices, allowing them to control Matter-enabled switches, outlets and bulbs over Wi-Fi. Amazon will add more devices and Thread capabilities next year as it tests how well the roll out goes. (Stacey on IoT) — Stacey Higginbotham
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